Overconfidence and Some Behavioral Consequences
MRIC 2008/09
Please note: this is archived content harvested from a web page and may not display as originally intended. Some images, links, and functionality may be broken or out of date.
"Overconfidence and Some Behavioral Consequences"
November 18th
Jeff Bailey - Business & Economics
Abstract: In many situations, people tend to be overconfident in their beliefs and judgments. In this colloquium, I will show that there are three main ways in which overconfidence has been defined and investigated. The three forms of overconfidence to be discussed are embodied in Lake Wobegon effects, over-estimation effects, and over-precision effects. Overconfidence is often associated with serious, negative behavioral consequences. Why then, is this judgment error so persistent? Overconfidence also has some positive consequences for both individuals and groups.
Jeff Bailey - Business & Economics
Abstract: In many situations, people tend to be overconfident in their beliefs and judgments. In this colloquium, I will show that there are three main ways in which overconfidence has been defined and investigated. The three forms of overconfidence to be discussed are embodied in Lake Wobegon effects, over-estimation effects, and over-precision effects. Overconfidence is often associated with serious, negative behavioral consequences. Why then, is this judgment error so persistent? Overconfidence also has some positive consequences for both individuals and groups.
Original url: http://www.uidaho.edu/class/mric/archives/pre-2010/fall2008/bailey