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A Stochastic Simulation Analysis Of The Effects Of Indian Wheat Production Instability On The World Wheat Market Item Info
- Title:
- A Stochastic Simulation Analysis Of The Effects Of Indian Wheat Production Instability On The World Wheat Market
- Creator:
- Devadoss, Stephen; Li, Shuangling; Jones, James
- Date Created (ISO Standard):
- 1994-08
- Description:
- Adverse weather factors in India augment the instability in wheat supply and trade. Consequently, India's wheat trade is a classic example of stochastic supply being the dominant factor in determining trade flows. This study analyses the effects of random fluctuations in India's wheat supply on domestic and world price variability and trade flows of India and major exporters and importers by using stochastic simulation analysis. Production instability causes price variability of $71 per metric ton under autarky condition. However, price variability is mitigated once trade is allowed. Thus, trade acts as a buffer stock program in reducing price variability. The results show that production shortfalls (surpluses) in India benefit wheat exporters (importers) and hurt importers (exporters).
- Subjects:
- Impact analysis simulation Includes individual crops/industries supply and demand international trade
- AgEcon Search Subjects:
- Research Methods/ Statistical Methods Crop Production/Industries Demand and Price Analysis International Relations/Trade
- Series:
- Agricultural Economic Research Series
- Source Identifier:
- aers94-16
- Type:
- Text
- Format:
- application/pdf
- Contributing Departments:
- Department of Agricultural Economics
Source
- Preferred Citation:
- "A Stochastic Simulation Analysis Of The Effects Of Indian Wheat Production Instability On The World Wheat Market", Agricultural Economics Research Series, University of Idaho Library Digital Collections, https://www.lib.uidaho.edu/digital/aers/items/aers233.html
Rights
- Rights:
- In Copyright – Educational Use Permitted. Digital reproduction rights assigned to University of Idaho Library by donor/contributing institution/source (as applicable). For more information, please contact University of Idaho Library Special Collections and Archives Department at libspec@uidaho.edu.
- Standardized Rights:
- http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC-EDU/1.0/