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Wheat import demands of the former Soviet Union (FSU) greatly influenced the volume of wheat trade and prices after the Soviets entered into the world wheat market as a consistent, but variable, buyer in the seventies and eighties. Wheat imports, which typically have accounted for half of the former Soviet Union's grain imports, peaked in 1984 at approximately 25% of global wheat trade. The world food economy is confronted with a new era following the collapse of central planning and single-party communism in the former Soviet republics. Arguments that the former Soviet Republics may cease or reverse their role as a continuous deficit region have been reviewed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of the former Soviet Union's withdrawing from the world wheat market on world trade and prices and to analyze the effects of random fluctuations in FSU's wheat production on the world wheat market. While the simulated impact on average price levels is significant, price trends at the turn of the century are shown to depend on other economic parameters. The stochastic simulation suggests that the former Soviet region will play a moderately important role in the year-to-year behavior of the world wheat economy even if long-term self-sufficiency is achieved.

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Title:
The Former Soviet Union And The World Wheat Economy
Creator:
Jones,James R.; Li, Shuangling; Devadoss, Stephen
Date Created (ISO Standard):
1994-08
Description:
Wheat import demands of the former Soviet Union (FSU) greatly influenced the volume of wheat trade and prices after the Soviets entered into the world wheat market as a consistent, but variable, buyer in the seventies and eighties. Wheat imports, which typically have accounted for half of the former Soviet Union's grain imports, peaked in 1984 at approximately 25% of global wheat trade. The world food economy is confronted with a new era following the collapse of central planning and single-party communism in the former Soviet republics. Arguments that the former Soviet Republics may cease or reverse their role as a continuous deficit region have been reviewed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of the former Soviet Union's withdrawing from the world wheat market on world trade and prices and to analyze the effects of random fluctuations in FSU's wheat production on the world wheat market. While the simulated impact on average price levels is significant, price trends at the turn of the century are shown to depend on other economic parameters. The stochastic simulation suggests that the former Soviet region will play a moderately important role in the year-to-year behavior of the world wheat economy even if long-term self-sufficiency is achieved.
Subjects:
Foreign trade international trade Includes individual crops/industries Impact analysis elasticities
AgEcon Search Subjects:
International Relations/Trade Research Methods/ Statistical Methods Crop Production/Industries Demand and Price Analysis
Series:
Agricultural Economic Research Series
Source Identifier:
aers94-15
Type:
text
Format:
application/pdf
Contributing Departments:
Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology

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Source
Preferred Citation:
"The Former Soviet Union And The World Wheat Economy", Agricultural Economics Research Series, University of Idaho Library Digital Collections, https://www.lib.uidaho.edu/digital/aers/items/aers184.html
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Rights:
In Copyright – Educational Use Permitted. Digital reproduction rights assigned to University of Idaho Library by donor/contributing institution/source (as applicable). For more information, please contact University of Idaho Library Special Collections and Archives Department at libspec@uidaho.edu.
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