Theses and Dissertations Collection

A number of communities at risk to hazards that require evacuation, lack an understanding of evacuation capacity. Modeling to estimate clearance times provides insights into factors that affect evacuation, such as limited egress options, high population density, and evacuee mobility. This research use the island community of Balboa Island in the City of Newport Beach, California, to examine the interaction of these factors in a study of multi-modal, tsunami evacuation potential. A multi-modal evacuation model was developed that allows for exploratory analysis of potential tsunami evacuation scenarios. Incorporating evacuee response time, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and transit-dependent populations improves the model's representation of reality over traditional evacuation models that often underestimate clearance time. Results indicate a wide range of clearance times based on differing scenarios and strategies. Research results can be used to guide local emergency managers in the efforts to implement targeted mitigation strategies that reduce evacuation clearance time.