Theses and Dissertations Collection

Communities face numerous challenges to plan for expected or unexpected future change. Researcher-informed scenarios of the future provide local community members and stakeholders with depictions of current and future issues, trends as possibilities for the future, and a sense of plausible and viable solutions at multiple scales. Participatory Scenario Planning, a method utilized in scenario-based research, generates a mechanism for considering changes within a timeline as to when solutions might be implemented under certain assumptions. SES (Social-Ecological Systems) scenario-based alternative futures [Hulse and Gregory, 2004; Hulse, 2009; Steinitz, 2012] for PSP can provide community members, planners, and decisions-makers with a suite of visualizations, spatial and temporal, for Alternative Futures and solutions to their key problems. This research intends to provide a synthesis of a) a framework for delivering scenarios with embedded solutions [Cronan et al., 2022a], b) stakeholder engagement tools and a method for delivery [Cronan et al., 2022b], and c) an example of an applied solution for a case study in Magic Valley Idaho [Cronan et al., 2022c, in review]. This synthesis aims to impart a novel contribution to the advancement of scenario planning through provision key and opportune moments of integration of the following: 1) integrated solutions within the scenario development and modeling process, 2) a demonstration of established competencies developed, and 3) established heuristics in which may further theoretical basis of participatory scenario planning. These Kairos Moments intend to inform future PSP and Alternative Futures facilitators with specific periods within the process to focus on capturing and aligning feedback among project participants.