Theses and Dissertations Collection

Rising competition in the global corn market challenges the dominant role of the United States in the export market. We investigate how the rising competition in the global corn market has affected corn price dynamics in the US and the international market. Using monthly data from 2000 to 2021, we estimate Global Vector Autoregression models to determine how shocks to one country affect the corn market in another country. Results largely confirm our hypothesis that shocks to the demand and supply of corn in emerging countries (Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine) have become more important in explaining export prices in the US and other regions. In particular, shocks to ending stocks, an indicator of market supply, negatively affect corn export prices. Depreciation of domestic currencies against the US dollar lowers corn export prices, and an increase in domestic CPI positively impacts export prices. Furthermore, market-specific shocks, proxied by a shock to the export price, increase export prices in other countries. However, the impact displays considerable heterogeneity depending on the origin of the shock.